Examining The Relationship Between BIST 100 Stocks, Foreign Trade Deficit and Credit Volume

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this research is to examine the relationship between BIST 100 stock prices, foreign trade deficit and total credit volume.
Design/methodology/approach – Granger (1980) causality analysis, variance decomposition and action-response analyzes were used between the variables using the VAR method in the research. Data between the period 2007 M7-2023 M12 were used in the study.
Results – As a result of the analysis, no causality relationship was found between the foreign trade deficit and total credit volume and BIST 100 stock prices. However, it has been observed that BIST 100 stock prices are the cause of the foreign trade deficit and total credit volume. In addition, it has been determined that there is a bidirectional causality relationship between the foreign trade deficit and total credit volume in Turkey.
Discussion – Although it has been studied extensively in other fields, the unique value of the research is to examine the relationship between stock prices, foreign trade and total credit volume, and reach results that can contribute to portfolio creation strategies regarding foreign trade deficits and total credit volume.