Relationship Between Bitcoin Transaction Volume and Export Volumes: A Comparative ARDL Panel Data Analysis for Developed and Developing Countries

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to examine whether the use of cryptocurrencies impacts the foreign trade of developed and developing countries, and if there exists an impact, what would be its nature. This research explores the effect of Bitcoin transactions on exports within the realm of foreign trade using panel data techniques.
Design/methodology/approach – Separate datasets were created for developed and developing countries (US, Germany, Japan & Türkiye, Brazil, India, respectively), according to the IMF classification system. The data were obtained from reliable sources like the IMF, World Bank, and CoinMarketCap. While export volume was taken as the dependent variable, Bitcoin transactions were treated as the independent variable. Control variables include GDP growth, exchange rate variability, inflation, and trade openness. An ARDL and Bounds Test were used to establish cointegration between the variables.
Results – No cointegration relationship was detected between global export volume and Bitcoin transaction volume in any trend specification, and similarly, no long-term relationship was found for developed countries. In developing countries, a 1% increase in Bitcoin transaction volume was found to be associated with an approximate 0.2% increase in exports in the short term; however, this effect was not statistically significant and did not persist in the long term.
Discussion – The findings indicate that cryptocurrencies have not yet created a meaningful long-term impact on international trade. This can be explained by factors such as the volatility of cryptocurrencies, regulatory uncertainties, and infrastructure deficiencies.